UNAIDS and WHO estimate that approximately 35,000 people in MENA acquired HIV in 2007, bringing the total number of people living with HIV to 380,000 throughout the region. An estimated 25,000 die of HIV-related causes in the same year. Although the estimated number of HIV positive individuals has been reduced to 380,000 from 460,000 (estimated in 2006), this decrease is largely due to new methods of HIV estimation. The revision of estimations does not alter the urgency of the HIV/AIDS response in the region. There has been a significant increase in the number of cases reported over the past 5 years.

The status of the epidemic in Djibouti, Sudan and Somalia contrasts sharply with that of the other countries in the region. With national adult HIV prevalence of 2.9% and 2.6% in Djibouti and Sudan respectively, both countries are under going “generalized” epidemics. Somalia has a national prevalence of approximately 0.9 % .

In Iran and Libya, evidence of increasing HIV infection among injecting drug users (IDU) demonstrates that infection could extend to other population groups; the disease is not limited to IDUs. In Iran, up to 67% of people diagnosed HIV positive are injecting drug users. This is particularly concerning, given that estimates suggest there are between 200,000 and 300,000 IDUs in Iran and 400,000 in the Arab world. There is evidence that drug injecting is a risk factor in the HIV epidemics in Gulf states, such as Bahrain and Oman. Recent data also shows that drug injecting is a key driver in the emerging epidemics in Afghanistan.

As Seroprevalence and behavioural data becomes available for most-at-risk populations, It is probable that other countries will be found to have concentrated epidemics.